I’ve been thinking a lot about the nature of early-stage venture investing recently. In a world where multi-stage investment platforms are gobbling up LP dollars and AI deals command a 50-100% premium relative to broader software deals, how can early-stage funds generate returns? As I’ve pondered this more — I’ve concluded that non-consensus picking remains an under-appreciated source of alpha. In the following post, I cover the following: • What are the constituent parts of the VC job (sourcing, picking, winning, supporting)? • While there’s a ton of effort spent on sourcing, winning, and supporting, there’s comparatively less emphasis on true, non-consensus picking • Why non-consensus investing is much easier said than done • Several examples where funds have generated outsized returns given their ability to make the right non-consensus investments, as well as opportunities that I’m thinking about Check it out here: https://eastwind.substack.com/p/where-returns-lie-in-venture-capital